The Black Swan

Risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition, that if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objective. In project development and management, we utilize several tools in identifying and assessing risks thus, risk management is one of the crucial parts of project management.

Image taken from https://www.openriskmanagement.com/promise-open-risk-data/

 

In DRRM, I encountered the “Black Swan” theory. This theory is a metaphor for an event that comes as a major surprise, has major effect and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact, with the benefit of hindsight. The Black Swan is considered to be an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict, hence, typically random and unexpected. 

 

One example of the Black Swan experience is the “hanging diaper” incident that stopped the major operations of the MRT. The black swan such as the “hanging diaper” shows that even the smallest and most unexpected things that could happen, can greatly affect the operation of the entire organization.

 

As a project manager (and a DRRM advocate), thinking of conditions that will affect the achievement of objectives should not be disregarded. Recognizing the consequences of conditions that can affect the delivery of the project as a whole output would make the project succeed and accomplished. Team members are also important in risk management, thus, their participation in brainstorming and commitment  should be put in the table. Below are some steps that a project manager may consider in bringing the team members onboard:

 

1. Gather the opinion of the team members on their idea of risk management and explain to them how this would affect the project in the future;

 

2. Present success stories of other projects that considered risk management in their process;

 

3. Discuss the possible scenario if risk management was not considered and its impact to the resources

 

The contribution and buy-in of each team members are important in achieving the objectives of the project and to nurture more black swans throughout the project.